Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 93946.074598 99046.420259 104141.443768 109609.595327 115308.526465 121069.361021 127329.370746
2025-06-01 86262.387064 94132.514069 102209.656033 111108.136323 120625.384716 130488.373080 141471.332707
2025-06-08 79626.062754 89320.454334 99486.053187 110918.498153 123394.970220 136575.019953 151528.202146
2025-06-15 75724.506923 86908.988719 98847.030057 112501.016201 127647.593034 143897.029273 162609.202350
2025-06-22 72116.173168 84456.379987 97835.128433 113363.725907 130835.724782 149830.395042 171984.298136
2025-06-29 68594.812641 81829.732163 96383.867866 113503.168522 133011.983291 154474.098337 179790.843984
2025-07-06 65467.494350 79445.403576 95019.406742 113563.342268 134942.551326 158716.658304 187048.489292
2025-07-13 63797.032310 78614.411380 95318.385713 115424.894027 138845.026748 165136.435822 196749.832402
2025-07-20 62147.593185 77700.305829 95428.079246 116985.404495 142337.555056 171049.442191 205860.538931
2025-07-27 60288.001024 76437.676493 95042.771763 117888.808255 145003.535976 175969.352724 213808.685628
2025-08-03 58131.877193 74722.609409 94035.724190 117977.573109 146646.061098 179651.624163 220288.815512
2025-08-10 56306.327835 73328.605805 93340.930189 118373.539347 148599.659709 183663.045237 227139.449679
2025-08-17 54409.671410 71802.868729 92456.416321 118525.636865 150267.968181 187369.508947 233696.912704
2025-08-24 53225.758117 71113.881298 92553.476543 119842.570530 153328.063994 192740.203504 242270.469137
2025-08-31 51325.482513 69459.485213 91403.766347 119577.432797 154423.709353 195730.255850 247983.019720
2025-09-07 50487.671149 69110.397218 91839.527901 121244.769199 157869.747090 201557.153608 257140.562841
2025-09-14 49344.788063 68327.008689 91694.657642 122158.133302 160366.960238 206227.960451 264910.652467
2025-09-21 47910.425069 67118.464851 90970.275482 122305.531418 161884.226070 209686.095117 271201.619501
2025-09-28 46514.745014 65914.193785 90209.725504 122369.292542 163267.436545 212962.431405 277267.936492
2025-10-05 46044.818923 65904.449217 90961.571280 124346.958240 167055.709761 219222.328945 287047.573961
2025-10-12 45462.849251 65722.206977 91472.630037 126004.551126 170438.363373 224991.509038 296251.214263
2025-10-19 44612.670766 65152.654817 91456.699756 126964.046399 172923.979956 229644.721731 304085.449047
2025-10-26 43440.069676 64113.538895 90795.377852 127058.317830 174282.839770 232875.906688 310145.549565